Market Report
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Industrial and non-European platinum demand rise above the rest
No. 42 | 18th November 2024
The composition of platinum demand has changed significantly over the last five years. Jewellery is no longer the powerhouse it once was, particularly as Chinese demand has fallen significantly. Likewise, the drop in popularity of diesel passenger cars in Western Europe following the ‘diesel-gate’ scandal and incrementally tighter emissions standards have seen this sector’s importance diminish. The winners have been the global industrial sector and autocatalyst demand outside of Western Europe.
Global industrial demand is forecast to rise 3% this year to 2.4 moz. Platinum requirements across nearly all sub-industries are expected to increase. Demand from the chemical catalysts sector is expected to show robust growth and remain as the largest portion of industrial demand. Substitution away from rhodium towards platinum in the Chinese glass manufacturing sector is also expected to keep demand at historically high levels. Industrial consumption has increased its share of total demand from 29% in 2019 to 34% this year.
Platinum autocatalyst demand outside of Western Europe is predicted to climb by 2% year-on-year in 2024, following three years of very strong growth. Aggregate demand outside of Western Europe is expected to rise by more than the 10-year high of 2.6 moz. However, global platinum autocatalyst demand is forecast to fall by 1% year-on-year in 2024. To an extent, the benefit from some substitution for palladium in gasoline autocatalysts in markets such as China has offset the decline in diesel car market share in Europe, which has fallen from 13.6% in 2023 to 10.4% in September this year, compared to 52% 10 years ago (source: ACEA). Since 2019, the market share of non-Western European platinum autocatalyst demand has risen from 25% to 36% expected for this year.
Chinese platinum jewellery demand has been in decline but may be showing signs of stabilisation. Despite a short-term boost in 2021, platinum jewellery demand has been under pressure for a number of years. Global jewellery demand has fallen by 39% versus 2019, whereas in China it has contracted by 56% to less than 500 koz forecast for this year. In 2024, Chinese platinum jewellery demand is forecast to make up just 6% of the total market. However, the rate of decline has slowed sharply in China.
The two largest platinum demand sectors are showing relative strength and are forecast to lead platinum requirements higher year-on-year in 2024 and contribute to a market deficit. The platinum price is not seeing much upside movement, likely due to surplus markets in prior years, meaning that stocks are available to meet the shortfall in mined and recycled supply.
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