- Gold could rise to 2,950 dollars per ounce in the new year.
- Silver is likely to outperform gold.
- Demand for palladium will continue to fall.
According to Heraeus Precious Metals, a global leader in the precious metals industry, the gold price will continue its recent record series in the coming year. ‘In view of further interest rate cuts and the prospect of a weaker dollar, the price of gold could rise to 2,950 dollars,’ said Henrik Marx, head of precious metals trading, on Tuesday at the presentation of the annual Heraeus precious metals forecast.
Interest rate cuts make investments in interest-free assets such as the yellow precious metal more attractive and typically weaken the value of the dollar. A lower US currency usually supports the price of gold. Since the precious metal is predominantly traded in dollars, a weak greenback makes gold cheaper on the world market, which ensures stronger demand and thus higher prices.
The trends that helped gold reach record highs in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025, according to the experts. Major central banks are expected to continue buying gold, although the quantities will not be as high as last year. ETF investors returned to gold in the second half of 2024 after an extended sell-off. If the Chinese government's economic stimulus measures boost the economy, China and India could provide a solid basis for gold demand in 2025.
Geopolitical risks remain
In addition, geopolitical risks such as the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East remain. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven in uncertain times. ‘With the return of Donald Trump as US president, there is likely to be more uncertainty regarding trade and tariffs, which should also support the gold price,’ said Steffen Metzger and Stefan Staubach, who have been leading the precious metals division of Heraeus since June.
Many of Trump's proposed policies could reignite inflation. The US government continues to run significant budget deficits, the US debt keeps growing and interest payments have skyrocketed. While the recent interest rate cuts ease this pressure somewhat, there are no signs of a reduction in government spending, so the US will probably have to inflate away the debt, which would ultimately be beneficial for gold. Heraeus expects a range of 2,450 to 2,950 dollars per troy ounce.
Silver will outperform gold
Silver will outperform gold, according to the experts. Industrial demand is expected to grow in 2025, driven by continued expansion in solar photovoltaic demand. Despite the risk of a US recession, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, weakening the dollar, and supporting the price of silver and gold. The gold-silver ratio is currently elevated compared to 2 / 3 historical levels. This indicates that silver is still undervalued relative to gold despite this year's rally. Silver tends to outperform gold in the later stages of bull markets. Heraeus expects silver to trade in a range between $28 and $40 an ounce.
The platinum market is expected to remain in deficit in 2025. However, rising demand from the automotive and industrial sectors may not be enough to lift the price out of its trading range. A renewed strength of the dollar has weighed on the price recently, and if the South African rand were to depreciate further, one of the previous supports for the price would be removed. In addition, demand for platinum jewellery is likely to decline slightly. According to Heraeus, the range for platinum is between $850 and $1,220 per troy ounce.
Palladium demand declines
Demand for palladium from the automotive industry – the largest offtaker with more than 80 percent – is likely to decline as vehicles with internal combustion engines lose market share to electric vehicles. The increasing use of tri-metal gasoline autocatalysts, in which platinum has partially replaced palladium, has limited the boost to palladium demand from the increasing sales of new light vehicles in recent years. Although new vehicle sales are expected to increase in 2025, Heraeus expects the market share of BEVs to grow faster than overall market growth. This would cause sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines to decline slightly and palladium demand to fall. The price could therefore remain under pressure. Heraeus puts the range at $800 to $1,200 per troy ounce.
The rhodium price, which also depends heavily on demand from the automotive industry, is likely to fluctuate between 4,400 and 5,400 dollars per troy ounce. Heraeus expects a small deficit for the rhodium market. An improvement in refined production and a slight increase in supply from secondary sources outweigh the small increase in overall demand. This will reduce the expected deficit.
Ruthenium demand is growing – market surplus is shrinking
Heraeus expects a smaller surplus on the ruthenium market next year. Increasing demand could drive up the price. However, there is a risk that economic growth in key regions will be disappointing. Heraeus experts see a price range between $425 and $575 per troy ounce.
The iridium price tended to fall in 2024, as demand from the hydrogen economy was not quite as strong as expected at the beginning of the year. However, the fundamental outlook for iridium is good, as the market will narrow next year. Supply risks have decreased, but demand is expected to be slightly higher. According to Heraeus, the iridium price in 2025 will range between 4,900 and 5,600 dollars per troy ounce.
The Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast at a glance:
| Precious Metals | Range per ounce |
| Gold | 2,450 to 2,950 Dollar |
| Silver | 28 to 40 Dollar |
| Platinum | 850 to 1,220 Dollar |
| Palladium | 800 to 1,200 Dollar |
| Rhodium | 4,400 to 5,400 Dollar |
| Ruthenium | 425 to 575 Dollar |
| Iridium | 4,900 to 5,600 Dollar |
Disclaimer
The Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast 2025 is based on information from sources that Heraeus and SFA Oxford Ltd consider to be reliable but have not independently verified. The contents of the Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast 2025 have therefore been prepared with the utmost care. However, no guarantee can be given for their correctness, completeness and timeliness.
In addition, the precious metals forecasts, including all forward-looking statements, are based on the expectations and certain assumptions of Heraeus and SFA Oxford Ltd at the time of preparation of this document. Due to risks, uncertainties and other factors beyond the control of Heraeus and SFA Oxford Ltd, actual results may differ materially.
There is therefore no guarantee that the forecasts will materialise. Nor does Heraeus undertake to update the forecasts and adapt them to the respective new circumstances and developments.
About Heraeus Precious Metals
Heraeus Precious Metals is globally leading in the precious metals industry. The company is part of the Heraeus Group and covers the value chain from trading to precious metals products to refining and recycling. It has extensive expertise in all platinum group metals as well as gold and silver.
With more than 3,000 employees at 17 sites worldwide, Heraeus Precious Metals offers a broad portfolio of products that are essential for many industries such as the automotive, chemicals, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, hydrogen and jewelry industry.
By 2025, Heraeus Precious Metals will be carbon-neutral for its own operations and reach net zero in 2033 – as the first company in the industry.
About Heraeus
Heraeus is a family-owned global technology group headquartered in Hanau, Germany. The company’s roots go back to a family pharmacy started in 1660. With its expertise and resources, Heraeus has been making meaningful contributions over generations and is committed to do so in the future. Today, the group bundles diverse activities in four Business Platforms: Metals and Recycling, Healthcare, Semiconductor and Electronics, as well as Industrials. Customers benefit from innovative technologies and solutions based on broad materials knowledge and technological leadership.
In the 2023 financial year, the group generated revenues of €25.6 billion (US$27.7 billion*) with approximately 16,400 employees in 40 countries. Heraeus is one of the top 10 family[1]owned companies in Germany.
(* calculated with 2023 average exchange rate, 1€ = 1.0813 US$)
